A few days before the election, on a crisp fall morning, I walked through the Oak View section of Bloomfield, an area that’s considered “more Republican” in a town that’s a Democratic stronghold.
Something felt off. Everywhere I looked, there were Trump signs.
This neighborhood, which typically displayed only a few signs for the Republican candidate, was now dotted with flags, banners, and a sea of yard signs showing support for him. Even signs for Democratic mayoral candidate Jenny Mundell were sharing space with Trump’s.
That morning, just days before the election, felt different. The area had the vibe of a battleground state.
While I didn’t think Trump would win Bloomfield, or even New Jersey, the volume of his supporters here felt like a signal of a close race in the state, and a larger red wave nationwide.
And it wasn’t just Bloomfield. I was seeing this across North Jersey.
In towns where Trump signs had been rare, I noticed multiple, with neighbors sometimes in direct opposition to each other, another indication of a battleground mentality.
Since election night, and the narrow five-point difference in votes here, there’s been talk about New Jersey possibly becoming a swing state. While it could be an overreaction to the closeness of this year’s results, I can’t help but hope it’s true.
For years, New Jersey politics have felt like a foregone conclusion. If I vote Democrat, they’ll win, even without my vote; if I vote Republican, they’ll lose, even with my vote. It’s hard to get excited about an election when you already know the outcome.
The state hasn’t sent a Republican to federal office in decades, the last being George H.W. Bush in 1988. However, we have elected Republican governors during that time.
Signs may not vote, but they certainly indicate voter intentions. The growing presence of Trump signs across North Jersey suggested something. Either these towns were becoming Trump territory, or his supporters were becoming more vocal.
Based on the results, it seems to be a mix of both.
I dug deeper into this through a breakdown of the vote from northjersey.com, to see if my suspicions about towns flipping from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 were correct.
And it’s true Trump gained ground here, 33 towns or about 19% of North Jersey flipped red according to the article.
As expected, Kamala Harris won Bloomfield by a large margin, but Trump did improve his standing slightly. The rest of Essex County stayed blue also as expected but three towns Nutley, West Caldwell, North Caldwell flipped back to Trump.
Morris County though did flipped back after voting for President Biden. I was surprised to see this a little since Vice President Harris did gain ground with richer voters which this county has a lot of.
Five towns there flipped, including Denville, Mount Olive, and Mine Hill.
Other results felt very unexpected, especially in Passaic County, where the entire county flipped along with four of its towns; Little Falls, Hawthorne, Passaic and Clifton.
The latter two, which didn’t feel like they’d vote Republican, shocked me. I don’t remember any signs in these areas.
Across the river in Bergen County, though, it felt different. Twenty one towns there changed their votes from Biden to Trump. In these towns, Trump flags were a common sight. One street in Hasbrouck Heights specifically reminded me of my time in another swing state, Pennsylvania. There Trump flags may have outnumbered the American Flag.
These areas will be important in a competitive swing New Jersey, Republicans will have to hold onto them and the demographic of voters who live there if they want to see the state vote red.
Sussex County on the other hand is solid Trump country, he won every town by generally big margins. I don’t spend much time up there, mostly just hiking. So unless I stumbled upon a “Bears for Trump” sign at High Point, I’m not really qualified to weigh in on the local political climate.
The results show that at least for Donald Trump, North Jersey has become more red.
Two things stood out to me in the results, many of the towns that flipped are in the lower parts of the income bracket for their respective counties. Garfield for example is the 68th richest out of 70 Bergen County municipalities and Mount Olive is the 31st out of the 39 in Morris County. This could be a signal of the continued loss of working class voters for Democrats.
But, many of these towns still kept their Democratic local leaders. A trend which was clear based on the number of houses that displayed both Trump and Democrat signs, including the Little Falls house with the big Trump inflatable. So the question going forward will be, can anyone other than Donald Trump replicate this success?
If Republicans want to keep the dream of a swing state New Jersey alive they’ll have to build on the success of Trump in the cities and working class towns that voted more red this year.
It does appear some candidates, like gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, are doing this with visits to places like Newark- but will it be enough? Or will the results or lack thereof from the Trump administration next year dictate how the state votes moving forward?
I believe Republicans winning next year’s election and taking control of the governor’s office will be the signal of the state becoming more competitive. But still I don’t think we’ll see a Republican presidential candidate carry the state anytime soon.
While the idea of a more contentious political landscape may be daunting, I can’t help but feel optimistic. New Jersey’s political future may feel more unknown but at least if it becomes a swing state, our votes will all actually matter.
